"If you're caught on a golf course during a storm and are afraid of lightning, hold up a 1-iron. Not even God can hit a 1-iron." 
~ Lee Trevino

Actual odds for Hole-in-one

If you've ever managed a hole-in-one, you have a right to feel proud, but what are the actual odds of making a hole-in-one?

There is extensive variation, depending on the source and the numbers used for calculating the odds. One problem is that nobody knows the true number of aces made every year and while there are plenty of organizations that track holes-in-one; not every ace that is made is reported and not every ace reported was actually made!

In 1999, Golf Digest reported, "One insurance company puts a PGA Tour pro's chances at 1 in 3,756 and an amateur's at 1 in 12,750." While Ireland's National Hole in One Club puts the odds a little higher for one ace: "The estimated odds of acing a hole with any given swing are one in 33,000."

What about the insurance companies that sell "hole-in-one insurance" to tournament promoters? They should know the odds, right? SCA (which offers prize coverage services and creative solutions to eliminate risk in marketing programs in the United States) says the odds of a golfer holing out from 150 yards is somewhere from 10,000 to 15,000 to 1.

But as close to an official source as exists on this topic is Golf Digest. 

That publication has provided "acer odds" since the 1950s, and in the year 2000 hired Francis Scheid, Ph.D., the retired chairman of the math department at Boston University, to calculate the odds using the latest and best information available. The odds Scheid came up with were lower than any others cited above: 5,000 to 1. 

If you play 1,000 rounds in your life, according to Scheid, you have a 20-percent chance of recording an ace. If you play 20,000 rounds, you're odds are 1:1.

The Golf Digest study provided many great nuggets of information, even breaking the odds down by quality of play:

Tour player making an ace: 3,000 to 1
Low-handicapper making an ace: 5,000 to 1
Average player making an ace: 12,000 to 1

Some other highlights from Scheid's calculations:

Average player acing a 200-yard hole: 150,000 to 1
Two players from the same foursome acing the same hole: 17 million to 1
One player making two holes-in-one in the same round: 67 million to 1

Primary source: Golf Digest


The man who invented the sand wedge.

The first golf club designer to win the Career Grand Slam. Also known as 'The Squire'.

With the multitude of clubs available to the modern golfer, there is one which can be found in almost every bag: The sand wedge.

And while club designers like Scotty Cameron, Roger Cleveland and Tad Moore have enjoyed marketing success with their designs, the man who invented the Sand Wedge is more famous for his golfing exploits than for his invention.

Gene Sarazen was the first golfer to win all the Major Championships in his career, the Career Grand Slam: U.S. Open in 1922, 1932, PGA Championship in 1922, 1923, 1933, British Open in 1932, and Masters in 1935. He remains the youngest to ever win a Major (The US Open at 20 years old. Tiger Woods was 21 when he won the Masters).

He also invented the Sand wedge.

Prior to 1931, golfers basically had to make do with just one wedge, a pitching wedge commonly known as a "jigger." In 1931, Gene Sarazen invented the "second wedge" or sand wedge. He took a plane flight with billionaire Howard Hughes, where Hughes pointed out that an airplane's battle with drag was similar to that of a pitching wedge's battle with sand.

Sarazen went to his workshop and soldered metal onto the bottom of a pitching wedge, and tested it out until it could glide through sand properly without digging in or immediately bouncing out.

Sarazen took the club to the 1932 British Open, where he kept it hidden from the Royal & Ancient officials, whom he feared would declare the club illegal before play. Sarazen went on to win the championship, the club remained legal, and the rest is history.

Musings - The Game Within The Game

Putting holds no fear for the young golfer!

Ask a decent golfer what aspect of the game becomes more difficult as he grows older and the answer you get will likely be Putting.

This game within the game is enough to make grown men cry. All your skills, nerve, technique, hand-eye co-ordination and talent at reading the contours of the green come into play once you get the flat stick in your hands.

The agony of a missed 2 foot putt is far, far worse than a duffed drive, because in essence, the implausibility of messing up such a simple task is hard to accept, and there is no chance at recovery - a great iron can always make up for a wayward drive, but a missed putt is... an opportunity lost.

Putting even has its own affliction - the yips - where muscle and motion work independently of thought. A smooth stroke becomes an ugly jab, and the ball misses the hole... again.

The simple fact is you can't be a complete golfer if you're a bad putter. Sir Michael Bonallack, former Captain of the R&A said "When I was younger, it seemed the easiest part of the game, now I'm older, I know it's the hardest".